So, I have had a few exchanges (could be called arguments, I suppose) about what happens if Donald Trump is convicted of federal crimes AND goes on to win not only the Republican nomination but also the Presidency in 2024. Is this hypothetically possible? Well, anything is possible.
First of all: The constitution says that anyone, regardless of their past crimes or actions, can run for President as long as they are: A natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and have been a resident of the United States for 14 years (does not have to be consecutive years either). That’s it, period.
So Trump qualifies even if he were a 100-year-old pedophile mass murderer.
Most people do not give Trump any chance of returning to the Presidency. The Democrats are excessively quiet about Trump’s issues. That’s because the best possible scenario for them is a Trump/Biden rematch. They think it’s a slam dunk. They are just letting Trump do what Trump does best.
However, there may be several “hypotheticals” where his return to office is possible. Here are my three possible scenarios:
In my humble opinion, the most likely hypothetical is that Trump wins the Republican nomination and, before election day, Biden falls ill and dies or becomes incapacitated. He will be 82 years old in November 2024, so it’s not far-fetched. I do not believe that Trump can win a rematch with a healthy Biden if his legal fortunes do not change. This scenario could put the entire 2024 election in jeopardy in more ways than one. The real fly in the ointment would be that, unlike Trump, Biden is the current President, and all responsibilities and powers - possibly even the Democratic ticket itself - would be governed by Vice-President Harris. Trump could take advantage of this.
The next most likely (but improbable, in my opinion) is that Trump wins the nomination AND delays all legal proceedings OR is found not guilty in all cases prior to election day. This may give the GOP base enough votes to win another electoral victory (although not a popular vote victory). But it’s pretty remote, in my estimation. All the independent voters Trump garnered in 2016 are essentially gone.
Trump gets the nomination, but Biden is impeached at some point before election day and removed from office… this carries with it a possible sentence of being barred from running as a candidate for President. This is the most improbable of all, given that the Senate (the body that, if successfully impeached, passes judgment) is controlled (51%) by Democrats.
All these scenarios ‘assume’ that even if convicted, Trump would not serve any jail time. If that happens, I have no clue how a jailed President could administer a government.
But then, if anyone could, it's probably Trump.
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